Saturday, 18 January, 2025
How many Palestinians has Israel's Gaza offensive killed?
Palestinian health authorities report that Israel's ground and air campaign in Gaza has claimed the lives of over 46,600 people, with more than half of the identified victims being women, children, or the elderly.
In a glimmer of hope, Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement to halt the fighting in Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, according to an official briefed on the deal. This move raises the possibility of ending a 15-month conflict that has further inflamed tensions across the Middle East.
The current wave of violence began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants breached the border and attacked Israeli communities. Israel claims the militants killed more than 1,200 people, primarily civilians, and took approximately 250 individuals captive in Gaza.
The official Palestinian Health Ministry count of more than 46,600 Palestinians dead amounts to more than 10 times its count of losses in all previous Gaza conflicts since 2008, according to a Reuters calculation.
This explainer examines how the Palestinian toll is calculated, how reliable it is, the breakdown of civilians and fighters killed and what each side says.
How Do Gaza Health Authorities Estimate the Death Toll?
In the first months of the war, death tolls were calculated entirely from counting bodies that arrived in hospitals and data included names and identity numbers for most of those killed.
As the conflict ground on and fewer hospitals and morgues continued to operate, the authorities adopted other methods too.
From early May 2024, the ministry updated its breakdown of fatalities to include unidentified bodies which accounted for nearly a third of the overall toll.
Since then, health authorities have been working diligently to identify the victims, and the portion of unidentifiable bodies has now decreased to less than 3%.
Zaher Al-Waheidi, Director of the Information Unit at the Gaza Health Ministry, credited the progress in identifying bodies to the restoration of a central database at Shifa Hospital and a new system that allows families to provide information on victims, which is then verified by medical personnel and police.
According to a Reuters calculation based on Palestinian data released in January, about 55% of the identified dead are believed to be women, children, or the elderly.
Is the Gaza Death Toll Comprehensive?
The reported numbers do not necessarily account for all victims, as many remain buried under rubble, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry, which estimates that around 10,000 bodies are still uncounted.
A peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet this month suggests that Palestinian tallies of direct deaths in the Gaza conflict likely underestimated casualties by about 40% during the first nine months of the war, as Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure crumbled.
The UN human rights office has also indicated that the Palestinian figures are probably an undercount. In past Gaza conflicts, the UN's death toll often exceeded the Palestinian count.
The UN office confirmed to Reuters that, based on its verified data, the majority of those killed are women and children.
How Credible Is the Gaza Death Toll?
Before the war, Gaza had relatively strong population statistics and better health information systems compared to most countries in the Middle East, according to public health experts interviewed by Reuters.
A study conducted by the UK-based non-profit Airwars found a correlation of at least 75% between its list of fatalities and the data provided by Gazan authorities early in the war.
The United Nations often references the Palestinian Health Ministry's death figures, and the World Health Organization has expressed full confidence in their reliability.
However, questions remain about the inclusion of 471 people said to have been killed in an October 17, 2023 explosion at Gaza’s al-Ahli al-Arab hospital. A US intelligence report, though unclassified, estimated the toll to be at the low end of a range between 100 and 300.
Does Hamas Control the Figures?
Since taking control of Gaza in 2007, Hamas has governed the enclave, although the Health Ministry in Gaza also answers to the Palestinian Authority ministry based in Ramallah, in the West Bank.
Hamas has paid the salaries of all public employees, including those in the Health Ministry, since 2007, while the Palestinian Authority continues to pay the salaries of those hired before that time.
Given Israel’s occupation of most of Gaza, assessing the extent of Hamas's current control over the figures is complex.
What Does Israel Say?
Israeli officials have questioned the reliability of the death toll figures, citing Hamas's control over Gaza's government. Oren Mamorstein, a spokesperson for Israel's Foreign Ministry, claimed that the numbers were manipulated and “do not reflect the reality on the ground.”
Nonetheless, Israel’s military has acknowledged in briefings that the overall Gaza casualty numbers are broadly reliable.
Since Israel launched its ground operation in Gaza on October 27, 2023, the military reports that 405 of its soldiers have been killed in combat.
Israel maintains that it goes to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties. It accuses Hamas of using Gaza’s civilians as human shields by operating in densely populated areas, humanitarian zones, schools, and hospitals—charges that Hamas denies.
How Many of the Dead Are Fighters?
The Palestinian Health Ministry does not distinguish between civilians and Hamas combatants, who are not formally uniformed or separately identified.
Israel has periodically estimated the number of Hamas fighters killed, with previous figures ranging from 17,000 to 18,000, and more recent assessments placing the number at around 20,000. The Israeli military claims that for every fighter killed, about one civilian also dies, attributing this to Hamas's strategy of operating within civilian facilities.
Israel’s estimates are based on a combination of battlefield body counts, intercepted Hamas communications, and intelligence analysis of personnel in targets that were destroyed.
Hamas has denied these estimates, stating that Israeli figures are exaggerated, though they have not provided a clear count of their own casualties. Zaher Al-Waheidi from the Health Ministry noted that men of fighting age represent only a small portion of the identified victims.
Hamas secretly built a 'mini-army' to fight Israel
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How many Palestinians has Israel's Gaza offensive killed?
Palestinian health authorities report that Israel's ground and air campaign in Gaza has claimed the lives of over 46,600 people, with more than half of the identified victims being women, children, or the elderly.
In a glimmer of hope, Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement to halt the fighting in Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, according to an official briefed on the deal. This move raises the possibility of ending a 15-month conflict that has further inflamed tensions across the Middle East.
The current wave of violence began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants breached the border and attacked Israeli communities. Israel claims the militants killed more than 1,200 people, primarily civilians, and took approximately 250 individuals captive in Gaza.
The official Palestinian Health Ministry count of more than 46,600 Palestinians dead amounts to more than 10 times its count of losses in all previous Gaza conflicts since 2008, according to a Reuters calculation.
This explainer examines how the Palestinian toll is calculated, how reliable it is, the breakdown of civilians and fighters killed and what each side says.
How Do Gaza Health Authorities Estimate the Death Toll?
In the first months of the war, death tolls were calculated entirely from counting bodies that arrived in hospitals and data included names and identity numbers for most of those killed.
As the conflict ground on and fewer hospitals and morgues continued to operate, the authorities adopted other methods too.
From early May 2024, the ministry updated its breakdown of fatalities to include unidentified bodies which accounted for nearly a third of the overall toll.
Since then, health authorities have been working diligently to identify the victims, and the portion of unidentifiable bodies has now decreased to less than 3%.
Zaher Al-Waheidi, Director of the Information Unit at the Gaza Health Ministry, credited the progress in identifying bodies to the restoration of a central database at Shifa Hospital and a new system that allows families to provide information on victims, which is then verified by medical personnel and police.
According to a Reuters calculation based on Palestinian data released in January, about 55% of the identified dead are believed to be women, children, or the elderly.
Is the Gaza Death Toll Comprehensive?
The reported numbers do not necessarily account for all victims, as many remain buried under rubble, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry, which estimates that around 10,000 bodies are still uncounted.
A peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet this month suggests that Palestinian tallies of direct deaths in the Gaza conflict likely underestimated casualties by about 40% during the first nine months of the war, as Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure crumbled.
The UN human rights office has also indicated that the Palestinian figures are probably an undercount. In past Gaza conflicts, the UN's death toll often exceeded the Palestinian count.
The UN office confirmed to Reuters that, based on its verified data, the majority of those killed are women and children.
How Credible Is the Gaza Death Toll?
Before the war, Gaza had relatively strong population statistics and better health information systems compared to most countries in the Middle East, according to public health experts interviewed by Reuters.
A study conducted by the UK-based non-profit Airwars found a correlation of at least 75% between its list of fatalities and the data provided by Gazan authorities early in the war.
The United Nations often references the Palestinian Health Ministry's death figures, and the World Health Organization has expressed full confidence in their reliability.
However, questions remain about the inclusion of 471 people said to have been killed in an October 17, 2023 explosion at Gaza’s al-Ahli al-Arab hospital. A US intelligence report, though unclassified, estimated the toll to be at the low end of a range between 100 and 300.
Does Hamas Control the Figures?
Since taking control of Gaza in 2007, Hamas has governed the enclave, although the Health Ministry in Gaza also answers to the Palestinian Authority ministry based in Ramallah, in the West Bank.
Hamas has paid the salaries of all public employees, including those in the Health Ministry, since 2007, while the Palestinian Authority continues to pay the salaries of those hired before that time.
Given Israel’s occupation of most of Gaza, assessing the extent of Hamas's current control over the figures is complex.
What Does Israel Say?
Israeli officials have questioned the reliability of the death toll figures, citing Hamas's control over Gaza's government. Oren Mamorstein, a spokesperson for Israel's Foreign Ministry, claimed that the numbers were manipulated and “do not reflect the reality on the ground.”
Nonetheless, Israel’s military has acknowledged in briefings that the overall Gaza casualty numbers are broadly reliable.
Since Israel launched its ground operation in Gaza on October 27, 2023, the military reports that 405 of its soldiers have been killed in combat.
Israel maintains that it goes to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties. It accuses Hamas of using Gaza’s civilians as human shields by operating in densely populated areas, humanitarian zones, schools, and hospitals—charges that Hamas denies.
How Many of the Dead Are Fighters?
The Palestinian Health Ministry does not distinguish between civilians and Hamas combatants, who are not formally uniformed or separately identified.
Israel has periodically estimated the number of Hamas fighters killed, with previous figures ranging from 17,000 to 18,000, and more recent assessments placing the number at around 20,000. The Israeli military claims that for every fighter killed, about one civilian also dies, attributing this to Hamas's strategy of operating within civilian facilities.
Israel’s estimates are based on a combination of battlefield body counts, intercepted Hamas communications, and intelligence analysis of personnel in targets that were destroyed.
Hamas has denied these estimates, stating that Israeli figures are exaggerated, though they have not provided a clear count of their own casualties. Zaher Al-Waheidi from the Health Ministry noted that men of fighting age represent only a small portion of the identified victims.
Hamas secretly built a 'mini-army' to fight Israel
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