Tarique Rahman Emerges as Bangladesh Election Front-Runner, Says The Economist
UK-based weekly The Economist has dubbed BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman as the front-runner to become Bangladesh’s next prime minister as the country prepares for general elections on 12 February.
“Mr Rahman—the 60-year-old scion of a prominent political family—is the front-runner to become Bangladesh’s prime minister after the general election on 12 February,” the magazine said in its latest analysis, published on 2 February. The report noted that this will be the first poll since a political upheaval 18 months ago, which ended the “15-year rule of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League.”
“The return to democracy should improve law and order, reassure investors, and begin repairing Bangladesh’s fraught ties with India,” the analysis added. The Economist’s assessment follows similar projections by other international outlets, including US-based Time magazine and Bloomberg, which have also flagged Rahman as the likely next premier.
The UK-based publication also described the scene of Rahman’s return on 25 December last year, when excited supporters surged into the streets to catch a glimpse of the bullet-proof bus carrying him, which slowed “every couple of miles to give waiting fans a good look.”
The endorsement comes amid an intensifying election campaign, where policy pledges and rural outreach have taken centre stage. Rahman has made farm credit, financial reform, and governance central pillars of his campaign, targeting millions of rural voters who have long felt underserved. On 29 January, he pledged to waive agricultural loans of up to Tk10,000—including accrued interest—and to introduce “farmer cards” if the BNP returns to power, initiatives aimed at delivering immediate relief to smallholders while bolstering food security.
Analysts say these promises have resonated strongly with Bangladesh’s agrarian population. Agriculture remains the backbone of the national economy, employing a significant portion of the workforce and producing the bulk of the country’s food supply. Yet private and foreign banks have historically been reluctant to extend credit to farmers, citing weak collateral, recovery risks, and limited rural outreach. BNP’s commitments, coupled with Bangladesh Bank’s recent instruction to banks to prepare detailed agricultural loan data for the incoming government, suggest a rare alignment of political and regulatory priorities.
Beyond agriculture, Rahman has pledged to reform public finance, streamline bureaucratic processes, and attract both domestic and foreign investment to stimulate growth. Economists say these measures, if implemented effectively, could stabilise key sectors—including banking, trade, and infrastructure—while boosting investor confidence in a politically volatile environment. “The political commitments—particularly from a major opposition leader—raise the stakes for policymakers and the private sector alike,” said a senior Dhaka-based economist. “Bangladesh Bank and regulators now face pressure to ensure credit flows, reform delivery, and governance transparency.”
Recent economic data underline the urgency for reform. Scheduled banks disbursed Tk210.08 billion in agricultural loans in the first half of FY2025–26—a 29.2 per cent increase from a year earlier—yet the sector still suffers from uneven access and limited participation from private commercial banks. Experts emphasise that election-driven promises must be supported by crop insurance, rural financial infrastructure, and strong regulatory frameworks to ensure long-term sustainability.
Politically, Rahman’s rise reshapes the electoral landscape. The BNP’s strategy combines urban outreach with rural mobilisation, seeking to energise voters who feel economically marginalised. International attention, such as that from The Economist, not only enhances Rahman’s domestic credibility but also signals to investors that Bangladesh’s election outcome may carry significant economic and governance implications.
Observers caution, however, that elections in Bangladesh remain unpredictable. Voter turnout, last-minute alliances, and shifting political dynamics could alter the outcome. Nevertheless, the international spotlight on Tarique Rahman highlights the stakes: a BNP-led government could accelerate reforms, redirect fiscal priorities, and attract foreign investment, while alternative outcomes may sustain the status quo.
As the campaign intensifies, attention is increasingly focused on whether political promises translate into tangible policies and how Bangladesh Bank and financial institutions adapt to anticipated reforms. For now, Tarique Rahman has emerged as the nexus of domestic political ambition, rural economic expectations, and international scrutiny—a combination that could define Bangladesh’s next chapter in governance and development.